Southern Africa Outlook 2021
In partnership with
The economies of Southern Africa offer a diversity of human and natural resources that have the potential to yield inclusive growth. The onset of the global pandemic was delayed in the region and countries acted swiftly to insulate themselves from the worst of the crisis. However, amongst high economic and social costs, they have cautiously started to reopen their economies, created risks of heightened infection rates.
Regional growth is forecasted at 3.1% for 2021 (IMF, 2021), which is derived from an improvement of exports and commodity prices as the world economy recovers. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could be a “game-changer” for the region, but there is still a lot of work that needs to be done to build an enabling environment, especially when it comes to infrastructure. The region will also be waiting to see if the new Biden administration will try and repair and reinvigorate bilateral relationships on the continent.
Individual countries in the region face a mixed economic outlook. In South Africa a post-pandemic plan will prioritise investment, job creation and power supply, while a recession and debt crisis in Zambia continue into 2021. Mozambique’s growing Islamist insurgency and a long-running debt scandal is keeping the country in financial crisis, while the pandemic is exacerbating long-standing structural issues in Zimbabwe. Botswana’s tourism industry has been hit by the pandemic but the strengthening mineral outlook will bolster the economy. Namibia’s public finances are in a dire state owing to high level of borrowing and low oil-prices, while declining output volumes weigh on government and export revenue in Angola. It is clear that the road to recovery for the region will be long and arduous.
Key Discussion points:
How can the tourism sectors be reignited after being badly affected by the pandemic?
How can the region find solutions for its key challenges of poverty, education, unemployment and economic growth?
What is being done to build enabling business environments in the region, especially in relation to infrastructure and development?
How can the region find solutions for its health sector, which have come under scrutiny during the pandemic?
What role do oil & gas have to play in recovery and diversification efforts?
How will the debt refinancing of loans impact future investments?
Confirmed Moderator:
Confirmed Speakers:
