Success or Failure? Assessing the Key Takeaways from COP28 for Africa
In the crucible of COP28 negotiations in Dubai, climate negotiators have achieved a historic breakthrough: the first-ever global accord to curtail the use of fossil fuels. Dubbed the "UAE Consensus," this landmark agreement urges countries to swiftly transition their energy systems away from fossil fuels in an equitable and orderly manner.
Though the UAE Consensus is not legally binding and falls short of the lofty ambitions harboured by activists and negotiators, its significance cannot be understated. Still, the absence of specific climate adaptation targets and mandates for wealthier countries to boost climate finance to developing counterparts leaves much room for improvement. Indeed, as Madeline Diouf, Senegal's Climate Minister, lamented on behalf of the bloc of Least Developed Countries, “the vast gap between developing country needs and the finance available”, as well as the “dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis." Nevertheless, there is a prevailing sense that the “UAE Consensus” marks considerable progress for countries committed to combating the climate crisis, heralding a global effort to extricate from the clutches of fossil fuels.
This agreement of course emerges at the end of the hottest year on record, with shifting global temperatures unleashing havoc – especially across Africa. A recent investigation by the Carbon Brief found that over 15,700 lives have been lost in Africa due to extreme weather disasters this year alone, from flash floods in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda to unyielding drought in the Sahel and the catastrophic "medicane"-fuelled floods in Libya. The urgency for decisive action has never been clearer, but what was really achieved at COP28? This Insights explores the key takeaways from the annual climate talks.
Key Takeaways from COP28
In the lead-up to the annual climate talks, Africa articulated its core priorities clearly. Ephraim Mwepya Shitima, Chair of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change, underscored six key areas of negotiation:
Climate finance;
Global stocktake;
Strengthening adaptation actions;
Operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund;
Just energy transition; and
Africa’s quest for special needs and circumstances status.
African countries got a quick win with the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund, which was approved by COP parties on day one in Dubai. Hosted by the World Bank, the Fund is a financial mechanism established to address the irreversible impacts of climate change, providing financial support for developing countries that experience severe losses and damages due to climate-related events. While commended as a significant step forward, the Fund's crucial next steps involve defining its scope, raising funds, and determining allocation strategies. With approximately $700 million pledged during COP28, the Fund holds the potential to be a game-changer for African countries stuck on the frontlines of climate change.
Building on this, COP28 witnessed a flurry of new climate finance commitments – another core agenda item for African leaders heading into the conference. The United Arab Emirates took the lead, pledging $30 billion to a new fund for climate-friendly projects globally, with $5 billion allocated for the Global South. The World Bank announced its intention to increase climate funding to 45% of its total lending, a yearly boost of around $9 billion. Other noteworthy commitments include Danish firm Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners seeking to raise $3 billion for a fund focused on renewable energy projects in emerging and middle-income countries and the Arab Energy Fund pledging up to $1 billion over the next five years for climate technology.
Adaptation, however, presented a less triumphant narrative for African negotiators. The global stocktake and the long-awaited global goal on adaptation, while urging countries to enhance water access, resilient infrastructure, and agriculture systems, omitted quantitative targets and guidelines from earlier drafts. Notably, it missed numeric targets for public finance fundraising beyond COP26 commitments. This meagre progress on adaptation in some ways dilutes the momentum gained from the Loss and Damage Fund, as limited progress on adaptation implies a higher risk of loss and damage.
COP28 opened with a loud chorus of calls for a “just energy transition,” with African countries emphasising the need for flexibility to balance economic development and industrialisation objectives. Many attending defended Africa’s right to exploit its oil and gas resources, with Nigeria's State Minister for the Environment Iziaq Kunle Salako stating that a phased approach is more realistic than an abrupt cessation. Indeed, the proposition for a "just" and "orderly" reduction in fossil fuel use aligns with Africa's plea for a transition that considers its unique circumstances, opening avenues for collaborative solutions that respect developmental imperatives.
Conclusion
The success or failure of the annual climate talks invariably hinges on the ongoing struggle between ambitious ideals and the practical challenges of securing unanimous global agreement. The prevailing sentiment is that the "UAE Consensus," advocating a global departure from fossil fuels, marks a notable advancement for countries committed to addressing the climate crisis.
As Invest Africa (IA) member PIDG commented, “in terms of progression from previous COPs it was noticeable that the need to bring all parties to the table was now much more deliberate than in previous years , and the focus on Africa both in terms of needs and opportunities stood out.” Additionally, IA member LUX Africa noted, “for the first time, a better space was reserved for women and the African region, a key continent and a credible problem solver in the fight against carbon emissions.”
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While the imperative for a swift, comprehensive, and global transition is evident, the financial support necessary to facilitate this shift to cleaner energy sources remains insufficient the world over, and especially in African markets. The imperative now lies in directing attention towards investment and mobilising the trillions of dollars needed to expedite reductions in greenhouse gases, enhance adaptation and resilience, and address climate-induced loss and damage—all while safeguarding Africa's developmental and industrialisation goals.
COP28 IA Member Spotlight: